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A-level probability question, to bring joy to children at Christmas:… - Sally's Journal — LiveJournal
November 19th, 2013
12:01 pm

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From:atreic
Date:November 20th, 2013 12:31 pm (UTC)
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Oh, of course. He rolled lots of dice, and although that's a good way of
working out probability, it's not a great way, because you could just be
really lucky at rolling dice.
From:Pete Stevens [ex-parrot.com]
Date:November 20th, 2013 02:17 pm (UTC)
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Hmm. My program isn't terminating - it will run until power failure if it keeps being unlucky.

But on the being lucky/unlucky. I ran 16k full trials. So the probability of coming out with the answer 5 is (5/8 . 4/8 . 3/8 . 2/8 . 1/8)^16384 which is 120 * 2^-245760 which is well below the Heisenberg limit of 6.6 * 10^-34 at which point you probably need to start worrying about the correct type of octonaut spontaneously popping into existence without having to visit Tescos.

Incidentally in 64k trails (65536) the worse results were 86, 83 and 81 purchases to get the full set.

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